SCOTUS Bracket: #4 Ruth Bader Ginsburg v. #5 Stephen Breyer

The final game of the first round of the unbelievably (un)popular SCOTUS Bracket is finally among us.

Bringing this elongated Elite Eight round to a close is the left-leaning, liberal battle between the Notorious RBG and Stephen Breyer. One has a cool nickname and is pulp culture icon. The other doesn’t have a cool nickname (and if he did it would probably still just be Stephen Breyer) but is definitely one of the more active judges when it comes to oral arguments.

So, without further adieu, let’s get ready to, well, you know….

Courtroom Curiosity
At oral arguments, the first justice to fire off a question tends to get the ball rolling for the other justices to propel their own carefully aimed bullets towards both the sitting duck at the podium and certain justices that may be on the fence. This break in the meticulously prepared intro by the counselor allows the topic to move in any direction the given justices chooses. However, getting the firing squad started and delivering a kill shot are two completely different things.

Ginsburg is quite notorious for being the first to interrupt counsel. Over the past four years, she has finished as the most frequent first questioner three times, only being beaten out in OT2013 by Sonia Sotomayor. However, once that first question is asked, RBG tends to fall back into the shadows. Only once in a blue moon does Ginsburg finish as the top 3 questioner and it is even rarer to see her finish as the most active justice at oral arguments.

On the flip side, Breyer rarely shoots firsts (only twice during the past four years) but once he starts asking questions, he finds it hard to stop. Over the past four terms, Breyer finished in the Top 4 in both the Top Questioner and Top 3 Questioner rankings. On average, Breyer asks 17 questions per argument while Ginsburg tends to ask much fewer (averaging only 10 questions per orals).

Although RBG often gets the fireworks started, Breyer is the justice that keeps the show going. For this reason, Breyer takes this category.

Category Winner: Stephen Breyer

Penning Power
Relentless Ruth commands the attention of the other justices in a meek yet massive way. When it comes to getting justices on her side to concur with an opinion, she definitely possesses an undeniable ability to be persuasive. From OT2011 through OT2013, RBG stacked up an impressive 88.7% in justice concurrence. While her numbers took a bit of a nose dive in OT2014 (73%), this should only be a slight bump in the road after OT2015 is all said and done.

Breyer’s justice concurrence numbers tend to hover around the low 70s. OT2013 was his most persuasive year, putting together a 90.7% in justice’s approval. However, this one outlier of a term will not be enough to compare with the approval ratings that RBG is used to seeing.

Category Winner: Ruth Bader Ginsberg 

Humor
At first glance, it is hard to believe that Stephen Breyer could even be remotely funny. In fact, the Mr. Burn’s lookalike may seem somewhat evil from the exterior. But when it comes to laugh track triggers, this guy is now the front runner to take @SCOTUSHUMOR’s OT2015 crown.

From OT2012 through  OT2014 (and probably even further into the past if the Twitter records went back that far), Breyer has finished second to the Atonin Scalia in this category. Scalia was such a humor force, that often times Breyer would finish a distant second despite averaging 38 questions per term during that span. But now that Scalia’s seat lays vacant, Breyer’s path to the humor crown is in his midst.   Breyer already has 39 laugh tracks in OT2015 and is well ahead of Roberts, who is in second amongst active justices with 19.

RBG, on the other hand, isn’t the jokester when it comes to oral argument. She has tallied one laugh track so far this year and that is only one off of her Term high over the last four years.  While Ginsburg does have humorous side away from the bench (her approval of her "gangsta" nickname is proof alone of that), this off the record jovial   isn’t enough for her to really move the needle for her in this category.

Category Winner: Stephen Breyer 

WINNER: Stephen Breyer 2-1

SCOTUSbracket Round 1: #3 Clarence Thomas v. #6 Samuel Alito

Is it really still only Round 1 of #SCOTUSbracket? Man, this could set the world record for the longest story piece ever…

This week matchup isn’t really much to talk about. Because of the way the rules were written, Clarence Thomas has no real chance of coming out of the first round despite his Top 3 ranking. For those new comers to the SCOTUS landscape, the silent judge never talks at oral arguments. And because of that, he pretty much loses the Courtroom Curiosity and Humor categories without even having to look at the numbers.

So, instead of wasting Alito’s stats on this first round bust, let’s just go ahead and call this one…

Winner: Samuel Alito (by default) 

SCOTUSbracket Round 1: #2 Anthony Kennedy v. #7 Sonia Sotomayor

For those few who are actually following along, the SCOTUSbracket is moving at a snail's pace. At this rate, the tourney will be over by the time the Senate confirms a new SCOTUS member.

This week we take a look at the match-up between one of the court’s more liberal justices against the country’s oh-so-powerful swing vote.

Kennedy, a Ronald Reagan appointee, has been on the nation’s highest court for 28 years and is now the court's most senior member thanks to the passing of Scalia. While many Republicans hoped Kennedy would be a conservative stalwart like the prior Reagan nominees’, Kennedy’s gravitation towards the middle of the ideology spectrum has made him one of the most pivotal members of the bench and to the entire country.

Moving now from the center to the far left, Sotomayor ranks on most ideology charts as the second most liberal justice currently on the bench, just a shade behind the Notorious RBG. With one of the more diverse backgrounds of any member to ever take the SCOTUS bench, Sotomayor channels her Bronx and Puerto Rican roots when asking pointed questions during oral arguments or when writing fiery opinions. She has become one of the court’s most favorite justices, unless you bleed GOP.

With all of that said, let’s get to the tale of the tape.

Courtroom Curiosity
When it comes to courtroom activity, Sotomayor is by-far the most inquisitive between these two justices. From OT2011 through OT2014, Sonia ranked in the top 3 every year in average amount of questions per oral arguments (19.3 Qs/argument). Kennedy, on the other hand, ranked third to last in each of those four years (10.5 Qs/argument).

Kennedy rarely cracks the top spot in frequency of questions asked, averaging a 3.5% as the number one questioner over the past four years. Sotomayor, on the flip side, can’t stop asking questions sometimes. She finished in top 3 as the most frequent questioner and as a top 3 questioner during this time. As a little cherry on top, in 2012, Sotomayor was a top 3 questioner 80% of the time, which is higher than any justice in that span.

While the gap between Sotomayor and Kennedy reduces when you look at the frequency that each justice asks the first question during an oral argument, Kennedy's numbers are not enough to surpass Sonia in any given year. Sonia’s proclivity to bombard counselors with questions makes her a fierce justice to face when bringing a case to the Supreme Court. Because of this highly advanced courtroom curiosity, this category is easy won by Sotomayor.

Category Winner: Sonia Sotomayor.  

Penning Power
A unanimous decision is never easy to obtain. The court is filled with inflated egos, making it a tall task to get all of the justices to agree on an issue. However, finishing a term where all of a justice’s majority opinions are unanimous is almost like a baseball pitcher hurling back-to-back perfect games.

In OT2013, Sotomayor did just that. During that term, Sonia wrote eight majority opinions and all eight were unanimous, allowing her to post a 72-0 score in that term. That stat was so amazing that I had to recheck it three times to make sure my eyes were not deceiving me.

Thanks to his tendency to be the swing vote, Kennedy’s numbers in this category are greatly dwarfed by Sotomayor. Over the past four terms, Kennedy only reached an fellow justice approval rating above 70% once, while Sotomayor’s approval rating never dropped below 75% in that span.

While Sotomayor probably wins this category on her "perfect term" alone, the overall numbers from OT11 to OT14 are staggering and lean heavily in Sonia’s favor. Therefore, this category is also hers.

Category Winner: Sonia Sotomayor 

Humor
With the game all but wrapped up, Sotomayor doesn't have much to lose in this category. While bringing the hammer with a plethora of questions is definitely her go-to weapon, laughter just isn't Sonia's thing. It's a good thing for her that Anthony isn't really pulling in the chuckles either during these oral argument to erase his large deficit in this match-up.

On average the two pull in 9 and 6.75 laughs per term respectively, with Kennedy ranking slightly higher every year since OT12. Thanks to this slight lead in making the funnies, Kennedy steals this category. However, it is a little too late.

Category Winner: Anthony Kennedy


Sotomayor with the first upset of the tournament!

Winner: Sonia Sotomayor 2-1

SCOTUSbracket Round 1: John G. Roberts v. Elena Kagan

Welcome to the first match-up of the highly-anticipated #SCOTUSbracket!

The initial game in this ever-competitive contest is the highest ranking judge in the nation against the SCOTUS bench's "newest" justice. While these two justices only have a 4-year difference in seniority on the bench, William Rehnquist's sudden departure in 2005 elevated John G. Roberts to the top of the SCOTUS ranking and the top of this bracket's seedings.

John's first decade as the chief justice of the highest court in the land has not been the conservative coercion that the GOP dreamed about. One the flip side, Elena's liberal tendencies seem to be satisfying left wingers with every opinion she authors.

But, enough about the political unbiased sway that these judges have on the laws of the land. Let's get to the stats that matter and see who comes out the victor.

Courtroom Curiosity
Roberts’s courtroom curiosity has progressively diminished throughout the past several years. During oral arguments in 2011, Roberts finished as a Top 3 questioner 66% of the time and as the top questions 24% of the time. Since then his top and top 3 finishes have steadily dropped, all the way to 10% and 3% respectively in the October 2014 term.

But that’s not all. Roberts’ was once asking questions at a 20.3 per oral argument clip back in 2011. However, this has taken an drastic down tick every year since, falling to 13.8 questions per argument. 

Kagan, on the other hand, has produced steady numbers in this category over the past four terms. While it is rare that she will be the top questioner (>5% of the time) or even really finish in the Top 3 (averaging 17.5 Top 3 finishes over the past four terms) among the other judges, her average questions tend to hover around 11.8 per oral argument, which tends to be on the lower end of these standings. 

However, even though the Chief Justice's recent decline in oral argument questions might be a tad concerning, his questioning numbers over the past four years are still much greater than Kagan's.  Therefore, despite the fall from the curious John Roberts of old, his inquisitive nature is still higher than Elena, allowing him to narrowly wrap up this category with a win.

Category Winner: John Roberts

Penning Power
When it comes to authoring opinions that the rest of the SCOTUS bretheren are willing to sign off on, the numbers for both Roberts and Kagan are extremely close. 

Because unanimous majority opinion has been an emphasis for Roberts in recent years, these numbers should not be completely ignored. From the October 2011 Term to the October 2014 term, Kagan has posted 15 unanimous majority opinions. However, Roberts is not that far behind, notching 13 in the same amount of time.

While unanimous opinions are nice, just convincing the majority of your bench-mates to agree with your opinion is usually all that a justice is really looking for. Unfortunately, the difference between Kagan and Roberts in this area is also quite minuscule. Since 2011, Kagan received votes from the other justices 84.7% of the time when she writes an opinions, while the Chief tallied agreements from the other justices 84.2% of the time. 

Although the difference between these two in this category are not mind blowing, the edge definitely leans toward Kagan, however so slightly. Therefore, Kagan evens things up with this category win.

Category Winner: Elena Kagan

Humor

Over the past four terms, the laugh differential between Roberts and Kagan has been enormous. Since the October 2012 Term, Roberts has been accredited with 79 laugh tracks compared to Kagan's 43.  In fact, Roberts has registered at least 9 more laughs per term than Kagan in three of last four terms.

While Kagan has been known to crack a good joke in here writings every now and then (see Cat in the Hat), these clever lines will not be enough to move the needle in her favor. Roberts secures the category and moves on to the next round with this victory. 

Category Winner: John Roberts

Winner:  John Roberts 2-1

SCOTUS BRACKET: Crowning The Best U.S. Supreme Court Justice

Every season, the powers of March Madness hypnotizes this nation into a brain-melting bracket coma. The over-abundance of bracket talk is certainly impossible to ignore. And it is not just college basketball bracket talk that pollutes the airwaves during this time of year. Everything and anything seems to be free game to be transformed into bracket form. 

Fictional Lawyers. Check. 

Disney Films. Yup.

Meats. Why the hell not. 

But where is the bracket love for the SCOTUS bench? With the Supreme Court bench missing a key player for the past two months, the even-numbered sitting justices finally fits perfectly into bracket form. Talk about an Elite Eight! So, let's drag the highest bench in the country through the madness and see who takes home the crown as the best currently sitting SCOTUS justice. 

Seeding

Logically, the justices have to be ranked with the Chief Justice first and the rest following in line by seniority. 

#1: CJ John Roberts

#2: Anthony Kennedy

#3: Clarence Thomas

#4: Ruth Bader Ginsburg

#5: Stephen Breyer

#6: Samuel Alito

#7: Sonia Sotomayor

#8: Elena Kegan

Point Categories 

These categories probably aren’t the best for measuring who is the best sitting justices. But, what are you going to do.  I know people would like to throw politics and ideologies into the mix, but we all know there is no real fun in that. So, you get what you get, and you don’t get upset. 

Courtroom Curiosity 

Sitting at oral arguments like a statue without any interrogation of the issues almost displays a lack of interest in a case that have the potential to effect the entire nation. Questions are key to being liked in any situation. It opens up a window the justice's soul. A curious judges makes a better judge. Sorry, Clarence...

Penning Power  

If Supreme Ambitions taught me anything, when you are judge authoring an opinion is huge. Getting certain justices to jump on the band wagon is even bigger. To overstate it just a tad, the power loaded in these justice's pen makes them gladiators in robes. However, some justice are more like Maximus while others work the tongue better like Commodus. 

Humor

A laugh is worth a days worth of honey. Not sure what that means, but if a justice can make me laugh, then he gets an extra gold star in my book. Thanks to @SCOTUSHUMOR, we can get an excellent jumping off point to which justices deserve the most laughs. Throw in some witty remarks during a dissent and you have comedy gold. Well, law-comedy gold. 

Below is a fillable bracket for anyone that might want to play along. Also, follow us on Twitter to vote which justices deserve to move on. 

Starting this week, we will go match-up by match-up pitting these ever-regal justices against each other. So, don't miss out! 



ROUND 1:

#1 John Roberts v. #8 Elena Kagan
#2 Anthony Kennedy v. #7 Sonia Sotomayor